It’s a fine distinction, but interestingly, government agencies are a little more optimistic than contractors. But when it comes to specifics, the uncertainty is equally shared.

Only a few contractors (9.7 percent) plan to increase spending on new equipment or fleet replacements, 43.1 percent expect to spend the same as 2011 but 47.2 percent expect to spend less. A lot of contractors (43.1 percent) expected their financial results in 2012 to be about the same as 2011, with little more than a quarter (26.4 percent) predicting better results, but 30.6 percent expecting to fare worse.

Both surveyed groups expect more maintenance and less big new projects, something we have come to expect in these times.

It has been my sense that the industry is changing and will never return to a pre-recession structure, that changes wrung by the recession will exert a long-term influence. Precisely how is, of course, still largely guesswork as the economy still barely avoids stalling. Our survey shows a majority of contractors (56.9 percent) are unsure what changes will happen to the industry in 2012, but only a few (8.3 percent) expect it to return to the way it was before the recession. More than a third (34.7 percent) believe the industry has changed forever. Slightly less than half (45.8 percent) of contractor respondents anticipate that the kind of highway and bridge construction work put up for bids by their state will change in 2012. Among agencies, 33.9 percent say they expect to make changes to the kind of work they out up for bid.

From the Better Roads 2012 Outlook survey

Contractors

Do you expect your financial results this year to be better than last year, about the same, or worse?

Survey comments suggest contractors expect changes to include more maintenance and repair work and less new construction, smaller job packages, and relatively more bridge work as older bridges can no longer be left unworked. Or, as one respondent puts it, “What $ they have will be to band aid [sic] today’s problems.” Agencies looking at how the job mix may change also commonly see more repair and maintenance, smaller projects and more bridge work. Innovative bidding and “more quick fix, less rebuild” are also responses. One response suggests that, “projects will likely be those that can be advanced quickly, and will be projects that can be constructed within the existing footprint.”

From the Better Roads 2012 Outlook survey

Contractors

Do you anticipate that the levels of highway and bridge construction work put up for bids by your state in 2012 will increase, decrease or stay about the same?

Almost half (48.6 percent) of contractor respondents say they expect the levels of highway and bridge construction work put out for bids by their state agencies to stay about the same, and almost 40 percent (38.9 percent) expect it to go down. Only 12.5 percent saw a raise, perhaps reflecting the fact that some regions may actually buck the trend either through better income streams or by addressing needs that can no longer be avoided. Among agencies a majority (53 percent) expect the amount of work they put up for bid will stay about the same, but 26.8 percent expect it to fall, with 20.2 percent looking at an increase, again possibly reflecting regional or local factors.

From the Better Roads 2012 Outlook survey

Government Agencies

Do you anticipate that levels of highway and bridge construction work put up for bids by your agency in 2012 will increase, decrease or stay about the same?

Looking back at their operations over the past five years, most contractors say they have become leaner and more efficient, and those changes came not in the pursuit of expansion or profit but in the struggle for survival. In the coming year a majority of companies say they are seeking out new areas of work (51.4 percent) and nearly half (48.6 percent) say they would work in cooperation with other companies more than they have in the past. More than a quarter (26.4 percent) of contractor companies intend to use more software and digital planning and tracking, and almost one-fifth (19.4 percent) say they will bid a narrower range of work, i.e. specialize more. When asked where they see their companies in three years, a lot of respondents said they expected to be in much the same position they are in today, facing uncertainty and fighting for survival. But some expected to be beyond that stage and expanding.

When it comes to hard numbers, a little over a quarter of contractor respondents believe their financial results will be better this year than last year (26.4 percent), 43.1 percent percent results to be about the same and 30.6 expect a worse year.

Among surveyed agencies, 45.2 percent anticipate that transportation infrastructure in their area a year from now will be in “about the same” condition and 32.7 percent predict it being “worse.” This leaves only 22 percent of agencies who see the state of their infrastructure better a year from now. And nearly two-thirds (64.3 percent) of the agencies expect to make changes in the way they operate in 2012, as they continue to respond to economic pressures. One agency respondent says, “Hope I’m wrong!” and another, “We have already changed operations to a ‘new normal.’”